气候变化对中国林火干扰空间格局的影响

Translated title of the contribution: Effects of climate change on spatial pattern of forest fire regimes in China

Jia Jia Su, Zhi Hua Liu, Ke Wei Jiao, Yue Yu, Kai Li Li, Qiu Shuang Lyu, Lei Fang, Wen Juan Wang

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

Abstract

Fire is a common natural disturbance in forest ecosystems and has extensive and profound impacts on ecosystem structure and function. It is important to examine the spatial-temporal pattern of forest fire and its spatial controls for a better understanding on the feedback among climate change, fire regimes, and forest ecosystems. In this study, three forest fire regime components (fire occurrence density, burned rate, and median fire size) from 2003 to 2016 in China were extracted based on the Global Fire Atlas dataset. Three models (Boosted Regression Tree, Random Forest and Support Vector Machine) were used to systematically analyze the impacts of climate, human activities, vegetation, and topography on forest fire regimes in China. Finally, the effects of climate change on future forest fire regimes were evaluated. The results showed that forest fires were spatially heterogeneously distributed in China, and fire occurrence density, burned rate and median fire size were higher in Northeast China than other regions. Different forest fire regime components were controlled by different factors, with climate as the dominant driver at national level. Climate warming will increase the frequency, size, and burned area of forest fire. The occurrence density, burned rate and median size of forest fire will increase by 39.4%-95.8%, 85.2%-143.0%, and 220.4%-206.6% under SSP126 and SSP585 scenarios. Future research needs to focus on evaluating the effects of climate factors on multiple fire regime components to gain a better understanding of future trends of forest fire regimes.

Translated title of the contributionEffects of climate change on spatial pattern of forest fire regimes in China
Original languageChinese (Traditional)
Pages (from-to)3810-3821
Number of pages12
JournalChinese Journal of Ecology
Volume40
Issue number12
DOIs
StatePublished - Dec 10 2021

Keywords

  • Boosted Regression Tree
  • climate change
  • forest
  • forest lire

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