TY - JOUR
T1 - Changes in Rodent Abundance and Weather Conditions Potentially Drive Hemorrhagic Fever with Renal Syndrome Outbreaks in Xi’an, China, 2005–2012
AU - Tian, Huai Yu
AU - Yu, Peng Bo
AU - Luis, Angela D.
AU - Bi, Peng
AU - Cazelles, Bernard
AU - Laine, Marko
AU - Huang, Shan Qian
AU - Ma, Chao Feng
AU - Zhou, Sen
AU - Wei, Jing
AU - Li, Shen
AU - Lu, Xiao Ling
AU - Qu, Jian Hui
AU - Dong, Jian Hua
AU - Tong, Shi Lu
AU - Wang, Jing Jun
AU - Grenfell, Bryan
AU - Xu, Bing
PY - 2015/3/30
Y1 - 2015/3/30
N2 - Increased risks for hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome (HFRS) caused by Hantaan virus have been observed since 2005, in Xi’an, China. Despite increased vigilance and preparedness, HFRS outbreaks in 2010, 2011, and 2012 were larger than ever, with a total of 3,938 confirmed HFRS cases and 88 deaths in 2010 and 2011. Data on HFRS cases and weather were collected monthly from 2005 to 2012, along with active rodent monitoring. Wavelet analyses were performed to assess the temporal relationship between HFRS incidence, rodent density and climatic factors over the study period. Results showed that HFRS cases correlated to rodent density, rainfall, and temperature with 2, 3 and 4-month lags, respectively. Using a Bayesian time-series Poisson adjusted model, we fitted the HFRS outbreaks among humans for risk assessment in Xi’an. The best models included seasonality, autocorrelation, rodent density 2 months previously, and rainfall 2 to 3 months previously. Our models well reflected the epidemic characteristics by one step ahead prediction, out-of-sample. In addition to a strong seasonal pattern, HFRS incidence was correlated with rodent density and rainfall, indicating that they potentially drive the HFRS outbreaks. Future work should aim to determine the mechanism underlying the seasonal pattern and autocorrelation. However, this model can be useful in risk management to provide early warning of potential outbreaks of this disease.
AB - Increased risks for hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome (HFRS) caused by Hantaan virus have been observed since 2005, in Xi’an, China. Despite increased vigilance and preparedness, HFRS outbreaks in 2010, 2011, and 2012 were larger than ever, with a total of 3,938 confirmed HFRS cases and 88 deaths in 2010 and 2011. Data on HFRS cases and weather were collected monthly from 2005 to 2012, along with active rodent monitoring. Wavelet analyses were performed to assess the temporal relationship between HFRS incidence, rodent density and climatic factors over the study period. Results showed that HFRS cases correlated to rodent density, rainfall, and temperature with 2, 3 and 4-month lags, respectively. Using a Bayesian time-series Poisson adjusted model, we fitted the HFRS outbreaks among humans for risk assessment in Xi’an. The best models included seasonality, autocorrelation, rodent density 2 months previously, and rainfall 2 to 3 months previously. Our models well reflected the epidemic characteristics by one step ahead prediction, out-of-sample. In addition to a strong seasonal pattern, HFRS incidence was correlated with rodent density and rainfall, indicating that they potentially drive the HFRS outbreaks. Future work should aim to determine the mechanism underlying the seasonal pattern and autocorrelation. However, this model can be useful in risk management to provide early warning of potential outbreaks of this disease.
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=84928805911&partnerID=8YFLogxK
U2 - 10.1371/journal.pntd.0003530
DO - 10.1371/journal.pntd.0003530
M3 - Article
C2 - 25822936
AN - SCOPUS:84928805911
SN - 1935-2727
VL - 9
JO - PLoS Neglected Tropical Diseases
JF - PLoS Neglected Tropical Diseases
IS - 3
M1 - e0003530
ER -