Decoding influenza outbreaks in a rural region of the USA with archetypal analysis

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Abstract

We present the first application of archetypal analysis for influenza data from 2010 to 2018 in Montana, USA. Using archetypes, we decompose the data into spatial and temporal components, allowing for a more informed analysis of spatial-temporal dynamic trends during an influenza season. Initially, we reduce the dimension of the set of counties by using a mutual information measure on the influenza time series to create a smaller, maximal mutual information network. Archetypal analysis then describes the relationship between influenza cases across counties and regions in Montana. Finally, we discuss the potential implications this analysis can have for infectious disease modeling, particularly where data is sparse and limited.

Original languageEnglish
Article number100437
JournalSpatial and Spatio-temporal Epidemiology
Volume38
DOIs
StatePublished - Aug 2021

Funding

This research was supported by the National Institute of General Medical Sciences of the National Institutes of Health (NIH), United States [Award number P20GM130418 and P20GM103474]. We thank the anonymous reviewers for offering feedback on manuscript. We also thank the Montana Department of Public Health and Human Services, Communicable Disease Epidemiology Section, for allowing us access to the state's influenza data. This research was supported by the National Institute of General Medical Sciences of the National Institutes of Health (NIH), United States [Award number P20GM130418 and P20GM103474 ]. We thank the anonymous reviewers for offering feedback on manuscript. We also thank the Montana Department of Public Health and Human Services, Communicable Disease Epidemiology Section, for allowing us access to the state’s influenza data.

FundersFunder number
Communicable Disease Control and Prevention Bureau
Montana Department of Public Health and Human Services
P20GM103474, P20GM130418

    UN SDGs

    This output contributes to the following UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs)

    1. SDG 3 - Good Health and Well-being
      SDG 3 Good Health and Well-being

    Keywords

    • Archetypal Analysis
    • Seasonal Flu
    • Spatial-temporal infectious disease spread

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