Does Meeting Expectations of Relative Income Improve Well-Being?

This paper examines the relationship between subjective well-being (SWB) and meeting one’s wealth expectations using panel data from the National Income Dynamics Study of black South Africans. We distinguish between internal comparison effects (meeting one’s own prior expectations) and external comparison effects (perceived relative income standing) to understand how different forms of relative income influence well-being. Using fixed-effects estimation to control for time-invariant individual heterogeneity, we find that meeting or exceeding wealth expectations is associated with statistically and economically significant increases in SWB. These magnitudes are comparable to the well-established effects of household asset ownership or strong religious beliefs on well-being. The persistence of these effects after controlling for current income levels and perceived relative standing indicates that internal temporal comparisons represent a distinct channel through which economic circumstances influence well-being. Our results provide novel empirical evidence that backward-looking expectations serve as important reference points for evaluating current circumstances. The findings suggest that anti-poverty programs generating sustainable income growth may produce larger welfare gains than one-time transfers by allowing individuals to consistently meet or exceed their evolving wealth expectations. This research enhances understanding of how relative economic standing shapes well-being in developing country contexts and demonstrates that helping individuals form and achieve realistic economic expectations may be as important for welfare as addressing objective economic inequalities.