TY - JOUR
T1 - Estimating large carnivore populations at global scale based on spatial predictions of density and distribution - Application to the jaguar (Panthera onca)
AU - Jȩdrzejewski, Włodzimierz
AU - Robinson, Hugh S.
AU - Abarca, Maria
AU - Zeller, Katherine A.
AU - Velasquez, Grisel
AU - Paemelaere, Evi A.D.
AU - Goldberg, Joshua F.
AU - Payan, Esteban
AU - Hoogesteijn, Rafael
AU - Boede, Ernesto O.
AU - Schmidt, Krzysztof
AU - Lampo, Margarita
AU - Viloria, Ángel L.
AU - Carreño, Rafael
AU - Robinson, Nathaniel
AU - Lukacs, Paul M.
AU - Nowak, J. Joshua
AU - Salom-Pérez, Roberto
AU - Castañeda, Franklin
AU - Boron, Valeria
AU - Quigley, Howard
N1 - Publisher Copyright:
© 2018 Jȩdrzejewski et al. This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited.
PY - 2018/3
Y1 - 2018/3
N2 - Broad scale population estimates of declining species are desired for conservation efforts. However, for many secretive species including large carnivores, such estimates are often difficult. Based on published density estimates obtained through camera trapping, presence/absence data, and globally available predictive variables derived from satellite imagery, we modelled density and occurrence of a large carnivore, the jaguar, across the species' entire range. We then combined these models in a hierarchical framework to estimate the total population. Our models indicate that potential jaguar density is best predicted by measures of primary productivity, with the highest densities in the most productive tropical habitats and a clear declining gradient with distance from the equator. Jaguar distribution, in contrast, is determined by the combined effects of human impacts and environmental factors: probability of jaguar occurrence increased with forest cover, mean temperature, and annual precipitation and declined with increases in human foot print index and human density. Probability of occurrence was also significantly higher for protected areas than outside of them. We estimated the world's jaguar population at 173,000 (95% CI: 138,000-208,000) individuals, mostly concentrated in the Amazon Basin; elsewhere, populations tend to be small and fragmented. The high number of jaguars results from the large total area still occupied (almost 9 million km2) and low human densities (< 1 person/km2) coinciding with high primary productivity in the core area of jaguar range. Our results show the importance of protected areas for jaguar persistence. We conclude that combining modelling of density and distribution can reveal ecological patterns and processes at global scales, can provide robust estimates for use in species assessments, and can guide broad-scale conservation actions.
AB - Broad scale population estimates of declining species are desired for conservation efforts. However, for many secretive species including large carnivores, such estimates are often difficult. Based on published density estimates obtained through camera trapping, presence/absence data, and globally available predictive variables derived from satellite imagery, we modelled density and occurrence of a large carnivore, the jaguar, across the species' entire range. We then combined these models in a hierarchical framework to estimate the total population. Our models indicate that potential jaguar density is best predicted by measures of primary productivity, with the highest densities in the most productive tropical habitats and a clear declining gradient with distance from the equator. Jaguar distribution, in contrast, is determined by the combined effects of human impacts and environmental factors: probability of jaguar occurrence increased with forest cover, mean temperature, and annual precipitation and declined with increases in human foot print index and human density. Probability of occurrence was also significantly higher for protected areas than outside of them. We estimated the world's jaguar population at 173,000 (95% CI: 138,000-208,000) individuals, mostly concentrated in the Amazon Basin; elsewhere, populations tend to be small and fragmented. The high number of jaguars results from the large total area still occupied (almost 9 million km2) and low human densities (< 1 person/km2) coinciding with high primary productivity in the core area of jaguar range. Our results show the importance of protected areas for jaguar persistence. We conclude that combining modelling of density and distribution can reveal ecological patterns and processes at global scales, can provide robust estimates for use in species assessments, and can guide broad-scale conservation actions.
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=85044526441&partnerID=8YFLogxK
U2 - 10.1371/journal.pone.0194719
DO - 10.1371/journal.pone.0194719
M3 - Article
C2 - 29579129
AN - SCOPUS:85044526441
SN - 1932-6203
VL - 13
JO - PLoS ONE
JF - PLoS ONE
IS - 3
M1 - e0194719
ER -