Insights from ecological theory on temporal dynamics and species distribution modeling

Understanding species distributions in space and time is essential to ecology, -evolution, and conservation biology. There is a growing need for robust habitat models that can adequately predict species distributions across broad spatial scales (Guisan and Thuiller 2005). An invaluable tool for conservation biologists (Norris 2004), species distribution models can be used to evaluate potential management actions, interpret the potential effects of climate change, and maximize biodiversity with reserve selection algorithms (Guisan and Thuiller 2005, see also Chap. 14). Yet the usefulness of such models is limited by a number of factors (Guisan and Thuiller 2005; Araújo and Guisan 2006), including poor incorporation of ecological theory in modeling approaches (Austin 2002; Huston 2002; Guisan et al. 2006). This is unfortunate because many theories in ecology can help guide the model building process, which may not only improve model predictions but may also provide greater inference regarding habitat quality in heterogeneous landscapes.