Large loss of CO2 in winter observed across the northern permafrost region

Susan M. Natali; Jennifer D. Watts; Brendan M. Rogers; Stefano Potter; Sarah M. Ludwig; Anne Katrin Selbmann; Patrick F. Sullivan; Benjamin W. Abbott; Kyle A. Arndt; Leah Birch; Mats P. Björkman; A. Anthony Bloom; Gerardo Celis; Torben R. Christensen; Casper T. Christiansen; Roisin Commane; Elisabeth J. Cooper; Patrick Crill; Claudia Czimczik; Sergey Davydov; Jinyang Du; Jocelyn E. Egan; Bo Elberling; Eugenie S. Euskirchen; Thomas Friborg; Hélène Genet; Mathias Göckede; Jordan P. Goodrich; Paul Grogan; Manuel Helbig; Elchin E. Jafarov; Julie D. Jastrow; Aram A.M. Kalhori; Yongwon Kim; John S. Kimball; Lars Kutzbach; Mark J. Lara; Klaus S. Larsen; Bang Yong Lee; Zhihua Liu; Michael M. Loranty; Magnus Lund; Massimo Lupascu; Nima Madani; Avni Malhotra; Roser Matamala; Jack McFarland; A. David McGuire; Anders Michelsen; Christina Minions; Walter C. Oechel; David Olefeldt; Frans Jan W. Parmentier; Norbert Pirk; Ben Poulter; William Quinton; Fereidoun Rezanezhad; David Risk; Torsten Sachs; Kevin Schaefer; Niels M. Schmidt; Edward A.G. Schuur; Philipp R. Semenchuk; Gaius Shaver; Oliver Sonnentag; Gregory Starr; Claire C. Treat; Mark P. Waldrop; Yihui Wang; Jeffrey Welker; Christian Wille; Xiaofeng Xu; Zhen Zhang; Qianlai Zhuang; Donatella Zona

doi:10.1038/s41558-019-0592-8

Large loss of CO₂ in winter observed across the northern permafrost region

Susan M. Natali
, Jennifer D. Watts
, Brendan M. Rogers
, Stefano Potter
, Sarah M. Ludwig
, Anne Katrin Selbmann
, Patrick F. Sullivan
, Benjamin W. Abbott
, Kyle A. Arndt
, Leah Birch
, Mats P. Björkman
, A. Anthony Bloom
, Gerardo Celis
, Torben R. Christensen
, Casper T. Christiansen
, Roisin Commane
, Elisabeth J. Cooper
, Patrick Crill
, Claudia Czimczik
, Sergey Davydov

Jinyang Du, Jocelyn E. Egan, Bo Elberling, Eugenie S. Euskirchen, Thomas Friborg, Hélène Genet, Mathias Göckede, Jordan P. Goodrich, Paul Grogan, Manuel Helbig, Elchin E. Jafarov, Julie D. Jastrow, Aram A.M. Kalhori, Yongwon Kim, John S. Kimball, Lars Kutzbach, Mark J. Lara, Klaus S. Larsen, Bang Yong Lee, Zhihua Liu, Michael M. Loranty, Magnus Lund, Massimo Lupascu, Nima Madani, Avni Malhotra, Roser Matamala, Jack McFarland, A. David McGuire, Anders Michelsen, Christina Minions, Walter C. Oechel, David Olefeldt, Frans Jan W. Parmentier, Norbert Pirk, Ben Poulter, William Quinton, Fereidoun Rezanezhad, David Risk, Torsten Sachs, Kevin Schaefer, Niels M. Schmidt, Edward A.G. Schuur, Philipp R. Semenchuk, Gaius Shaver, Oliver Sonnentag, Gregory Starr, Claire C. Treat, Mark P. Waldrop, Yihui Wang, Jeffrey Welker, Christian Wille, Xiaofeng Xu, Zhen Zhang, Qianlai Zhuang, Donatella Zona

Numerical Terradynamic Simulation Group

Woods Hole Research Center
University of Bayreuth
University of Alaska Anchorage
Brigham Young University
San Diego State University
University of Gothenburg
Jet Propulsion Laboratory, California Institute of Technology
Northern Arizona University
Aarhus University
Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research
Columbia University
University of Tromsø – The Arctic University of Norway
Stockholm University
University of California at Irvine
RAS - Pacific Geographical Institute, Far Eastern Branch
University of Montana
Dalhousie University
University of Copenhagen
University of Alaska Fairbanks
Max Planck Institute for Biogeochemistry
University of California at San Diego
Queen's University Kingston
McMaster University
University of Montreal
Los Alamos National Laboratory
Argonne National Laboratory
University of Hamburg
University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign
Korea Polar Research Institute
Colgate University
National University of Singapore
Stanford University
United States Geological Survey
University of Exeter
University of Alberta
University of Oslo
Lund University
NASA Goddard Space Flight Center
Wilfrid Laurier University
University of Waterloo
Saint Francis Xavier University
Helmholtz Centre Potsdam - German Research Centre for Geosciences
University of Colorado Boulder
University of Vienna
The University of Chicago
University of Alabama
University of Eastern Finland
University of Oulu
University of Maryland, College Park
Purdue University
University of Sheffield

Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › peer-review

318 Scopus citations

Abstract

Recent warming in the Arctic, which has been amplified during the winter^1–3, greatly enhances microbial decomposition of soil organic matter and subsequent release of carbon dioxide (CO₂)⁴. However, the amount of CO₂ released in winter is not known and has not been well represented by ecosystem models or empirically based estimates^5,6. Here we synthesize regional in situ observations of CO₂ flux from Arctic and boreal soils to assess current and future winter carbon losses from the northern permafrost domain. We estimate a contemporary loss of 1,662 TgC per year from the permafrost region during the winter season (October–April). This loss is greater than the average growing season carbon uptake for this region estimated from process models (−1,032 TgC per year). Extending model predictions to warmer conditions up to 2100 indicates that winter CO₂ emissions will increase 17% under a moderate mitigation scenario—Representative Concentration Pathway 4.5—and 41% under business-as-usual emissions scenario—Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5. Our results provide a baseline for winter CO₂ emissions from northern terrestrial regions and indicate that enhanced soil CO₂ loss due to winter warming may offset growing season carbon uptake under future climatic conditions.

Original language	English
Pages (from-to)	852-857
Number of pages	6
Journal	Nature Climate Change
Volume	9
Issue number	11
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-019-0592-8
State	Published - Nov 1 2019

Funding

This study was supported by funding from NASA’s Arctic-Boreal Vulnerability Experiment (ABoVE; grant no. NNX15AT81A to S.M.N.), with additional funding from NASA New Investigator Program (grant no. NNX17AF16G to J.D.W.), National Science Foundation (grant nos. 955713 and 1331083 to E.A.G.S.; no. 1503559 to E.E.J.), the Next-Generation Ecosystem Experiments Arctic Project, Department of Energy Office of Science to E.E.J., Department of Energy Office of Science, Office of Biological and Environmental Research to J.D.J and R.M. (grant no. DE-AC02-06CH11357), National Research Foundation of Korea (grant nos. NRF-2016M1A5A1901769 and KOPRI-PN-19081 to B.-Y.L. and Y.K.), and funds that supported the data included in this synthesis.

Funders	Funder number
DE-AC02-06CH11357
1331083, 955713, 1503559
National Aeronautics and Space Administration	NNX15AT81A, NNX17AF16G

UN SDGs

This output contributes to the following UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs)

SDG 15 Life on Land

Access to Document

10.1038/s41558-019-0592-8

Cite this

Natali, S. M., Watts, J. D., Rogers, B. M., Potter, S., Ludwig, S. M., Selbmann, A. K., Sullivan, P. F., Abbott, B. W., Arndt, K. A., Birch, L., Björkman, M. P., Bloom, A. A., Celis, G., Christensen, T. R., Christiansen, C. T., Commane, R., Cooper, E. J., Crill, P., Czimczik, C., ... Zona, D. (2019). Large loss of CO₂ in winter observed across the northern permafrost region. Nature Climate Change, 9(11), 852-857. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-019-0592-8

@article{24c9350e765e44be8673015751217eaf,

title = "Large loss of CO2 in winter observed across the northern permafrost region",

abstract = "Recent warming in the Arctic, which has been amplified during the winter1–3, greatly enhances microbial decomposition of soil organic matter and subsequent release of carbon dioxide (CO2)4. However, the amount of CO2 released in winter is not known and has not been well represented by ecosystem models or empirically based estimates5,6. Here we synthesize regional in situ observations of CO2 flux from Arctic and boreal soils to assess current and future winter carbon losses from the northern permafrost domain. We estimate a contemporary loss of 1,662 TgC per year from the permafrost region during the winter season (October–April). This loss is greater than the average growing season carbon uptake for this region estimated from process models (−1,032 TgC per year). Extending model predictions to warmer conditions up to 2100 indicates that winter CO2 emissions will increase 17\% under a moderate mitigation scenario—Representative Concentration Pathway 4.5—and 41\% under business-as-usual emissions scenario—Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5. Our results provide a baseline for winter CO2 emissions from northern terrestrial regions and indicate that enhanced soil CO2 loss due to winter warming may offset growing season carbon uptake under future climatic conditions.",

author = "Natali, \{Susan M.\} and Watts, \{Jennifer D.\} and Rogers, \{Brendan M.\} and Stefano Potter and Ludwig, \{Sarah M.\} and Selbmann, \{Anne Katrin\} and Sullivan, \{Patrick F.\} and Abbott, \{Benjamin W.\} and Arndt, \{Kyle A.\} and Leah Birch and Bj{\"o}rkman, \{Mats P.\} and Bloom, \{A. Anthony\} and Gerardo Celis and Christensen, \{Torben R.\} and Christiansen, \{Casper T.\} and Roisin Commane and Cooper, \{Elisabeth J.\} and Patrick Crill and Claudia Czimczik and Sergey Davydov and Jinyang Du and Egan, \{Jocelyn E.\} and Bo Elberling and Euskirchen, \{Eugenie S.\} and Thomas Friborg and H{\'e}l{\`e}ne Genet and Mathias G{\"o}ckede and Goodrich, \{Jordan P.\} and Paul Grogan and Manuel Helbig and Jafarov, \{Elchin E.\} and Jastrow, \{Julie D.\} and Kalhori, \{Aram A.M.\} and Yongwon Kim and Kimball, \{John S.\} and Lars Kutzbach and Lara, \{Mark J.\} and Larsen, \{Klaus S.\} and Lee, \{Bang Yong\} and Zhihua Liu and Loranty, \{Michael M.\} and Magnus Lund and Massimo Lupascu and Nima Madani and Avni Malhotra and Roser Matamala and Jack McFarland and McGuire, \{A. David\} and Anders Michelsen and Christina Minions and Oechel, \{Walter C.\} and David Olefeldt and Parmentier, \{Frans Jan W.\} and Norbert Pirk and Ben Poulter and William Quinton and Fereidoun Rezanezhad and David Risk and Torsten Sachs and Kevin Schaefer and Schmidt, \{Niels M.\} and Schuur, \{Edward A.G.\} and Semenchuk, \{Philipp R.\} and Gaius Shaver and Oliver Sonnentag and Gregory Starr and Treat, \{Claire C.\} and Waldrop, \{Mark P.\} and Yihui Wang and Jeffrey Welker and Christian Wille and Xiaofeng Xu and Zhen Zhang and Qianlai Zhuang and Donatella Zona",

note = "Publisher Copyright: {\textcopyright} 2019, The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer Nature Limited.",

year = "2019",

month = nov,

day = "1",

doi = "10.1038/s41558-019-0592-8",

language = "English",

volume = "9",

pages = "852--857",

journal = "Nature Climate Change",

issn = "1758-678X",

publisher = "Nature Research",

number = "11",

}

Natali, SM, Watts, JD, Rogers, BM, Potter, S, Ludwig, SM, Selbmann, AK, Sullivan, PF, Abbott, BW, Arndt, KA, Birch, L, Björkman, MP, Bloom, AA, Celis, G, Christensen, TR, Christiansen, CT, Commane, R, Cooper, EJ, Crill, P, Czimczik, C, Davydov, S, Du, J, Egan, JE, Elberling, B, Euskirchen, ES, Friborg, T, Genet, H, Göckede, M, Goodrich, JP, Grogan, P, Helbig, M, Jafarov, EE, Jastrow, JD, Kalhori, AAM, Kim, Y, Kimball, JS, Kutzbach, L, Lara, MJ, Larsen, KS, Lee, BY, Liu, Z, Loranty, MM, Lund, M, Lupascu, M, Madani, N, Malhotra, A, Matamala, R, McFarland, J, McGuire, AD, Michelsen, A, Minions, C, Oechel, WC, Olefeldt, D, Parmentier, FJW, Pirk, N, Poulter, B, Quinton, W, Rezanezhad, F, Risk, D, Sachs, T, Schaefer, K, Schmidt, NM, Schuur, EAG, Semenchuk, PR, Shaver, G, Sonnentag, O, Starr, G, Treat, CC, Waldrop, MP, Wang, Y, Welker, J, Wille, C, Xu, X, Zhang, Z, Zhuang, Q & Zona, D 2019, 'Large loss of CO₂ in winter observed across the northern permafrost region', Nature Climate Change, vol. 9, no. 11, pp. 852-857. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-019-0592-8

TY - JOUR

T1 - Large loss of CO2 in winter observed across the northern permafrost region

AU - Natali, Susan M.

AU - Watts, Jennifer D.

AU - Rogers, Brendan M.

AU - Potter, Stefano

AU - Ludwig, Sarah M.

AU - Selbmann, Anne Katrin

AU - Sullivan, Patrick F.

AU - Abbott, Benjamin W.

AU - Arndt, Kyle A.

AU - Birch, Leah

AU - Björkman, Mats P.

AU - Bloom, A. Anthony

AU - Celis, Gerardo

AU - Christensen, Torben R.

AU - Christiansen, Casper T.

AU - Commane, Roisin

AU - Cooper, Elisabeth J.

AU - Crill, Patrick

AU - Czimczik, Claudia

AU - Davydov, Sergey

AU - Du, Jinyang

AU - Egan, Jocelyn E.

AU - Elberling, Bo

AU - Euskirchen, Eugenie S.

AU - Friborg, Thomas

AU - Genet, Hélène

AU - Göckede, Mathias

AU - Goodrich, Jordan P.

AU - Grogan, Paul

AU - Helbig, Manuel

AU - Jafarov, Elchin E.

AU - Jastrow, Julie D.

AU - Kalhori, Aram A.M.

AU - Kim, Yongwon

AU - Kimball, John S.

AU - Kutzbach, Lars

AU - Lara, Mark J.

AU - Larsen, Klaus S.

AU - Lee, Bang Yong

AU - Liu, Zhihua

AU - Loranty, Michael M.

AU - Lund, Magnus

AU - Lupascu, Massimo

AU - Madani, Nima

AU - Malhotra, Avni

AU - Matamala, Roser

AU - McFarland, Jack

AU - McGuire, A. David

AU - Michelsen, Anders

AU - Minions, Christina

AU - Oechel, Walter C.

AU - Olefeldt, David

AU - Parmentier, Frans Jan W.

AU - Pirk, Norbert

AU - Poulter, Ben

AU - Quinton, William

AU - Rezanezhad, Fereidoun

AU - Risk, David

AU - Sachs, Torsten

AU - Schaefer, Kevin

AU - Schmidt, Niels M.

AU - Schuur, Edward A.G.

AU - Semenchuk, Philipp R.

AU - Shaver, Gaius

AU - Sonnentag, Oliver

AU - Starr, Gregory

AU - Treat, Claire C.

AU - Waldrop, Mark P.

AU - Wang, Yihui

AU - Welker, Jeffrey

AU - Wille, Christian

AU - Xu, Xiaofeng

AU - Zhang, Zhen

AU - Zhuang, Qianlai

AU - Zona, Donatella

PY - 2019/11/1

Y1 - 2019/11/1

N2 - Recent warming in the Arctic, which has been amplified during the winter1–3, greatly enhances microbial decomposition of soil organic matter and subsequent release of carbon dioxide (CO2)4. However, the amount of CO2 released in winter is not known and has not been well represented by ecosystem models or empirically based estimates5,6. Here we synthesize regional in situ observations of CO2 flux from Arctic and boreal soils to assess current and future winter carbon losses from the northern permafrost domain. We estimate a contemporary loss of 1,662 TgC per year from the permafrost region during the winter season (October–April). This loss is greater than the average growing season carbon uptake for this region estimated from process models (−1,032 TgC per year). Extending model predictions to warmer conditions up to 2100 indicates that winter CO2 emissions will increase 17% under a moderate mitigation scenario—Representative Concentration Pathway 4.5—and 41% under business-as-usual emissions scenario—Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5. Our results provide a baseline for winter CO2 emissions from northern terrestrial regions and indicate that enhanced soil CO2 loss due to winter warming may offset growing season carbon uptake under future climatic conditions.

AB - Recent warming in the Arctic, which has been amplified during the winter1–3, greatly enhances microbial decomposition of soil organic matter and subsequent release of carbon dioxide (CO2)4. However, the amount of CO2 released in winter is not known and has not been well represented by ecosystem models or empirically based estimates5,6. Here we synthesize regional in situ observations of CO2 flux from Arctic and boreal soils to assess current and future winter carbon losses from the northern permafrost domain. We estimate a contemporary loss of 1,662 TgC per year from the permafrost region during the winter season (October–April). This loss is greater than the average growing season carbon uptake for this region estimated from process models (−1,032 TgC per year). Extending model predictions to warmer conditions up to 2100 indicates that winter CO2 emissions will increase 17% under a moderate mitigation scenario—Representative Concentration Pathway 4.5—and 41% under business-as-usual emissions scenario—Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5. Our results provide a baseline for winter CO2 emissions from northern terrestrial regions and indicate that enhanced soil CO2 loss due to winter warming may offset growing season carbon uptake under future climatic conditions.

UR - https://www.scopus.com/pages/publications/85074223265

U2 - 10.1038/s41558-019-0592-8

DO - 10.1038/s41558-019-0592-8

M3 - Article

AN - SCOPUS:85074223265

SN - 1758-678X

VL - 9

SP - 852

EP - 857

JO - Nature Climate Change

JF - Nature Climate Change

IS - 11

ER -