TY - JOUR
T1 - Mapping Multiple Wild Pig Species’ Population Dynamics in Southeast Asia During the African Swine Fever Outbreak (2018–2024)
AU - Lieb, Zoë E.
AU - Meijaard, Erik
AU - Brodie, Jedediah F.
AU - Shabrani, Adi
AU - Mohd-Azlan, Jayasilan
AU - Supriatna, Jatna
AU - Struebig, Matthew John
AU - Deere, Nicolas J.
AU - Spencer, Katie L.
AU - Heon, Suipeng
AU - Wong, Lok Jinn
AU - Juiling, Suzika
AU - Hearn, Andrew
AU - Coudrat, Camille N.Z.
AU - Jati, Agus Sudibyo
AU - Linkie, Matthew
AU - Ngoprasert, Dusit
AU - Das, Dhritiman
AU - Wearn, Oliver R.
AU - Gray, Russell J.
AU - Cabanas, Al John C.
AU - Chankhao, Andaman
AU - Saisamorn, Apinya
AU - Azhar, Badrul
AU - Lee, Benjamin P.Y.H.
AU - Goossens, Benoit
AU - Traeholt, Carl
AU - MacDonald, David W.
AU - Lastica-Ternura, Emilia A.
AU - Garcia-Gil, Fernando
AU - Pattiselanno, Freddy
AU - Fredriksson, Gabriella
AU - Davies, Glyn
AU - Hilser, Harry
AU - Wheelhouse, Jamiee
AU - van der Ploeg, Jan
AU - Redeña-Santos, John Carlo
AU - Moore, Jonathan M.
AU - Parakkasi, Karmila
AU - Berman, Laura Marie
AU - Lee, Samuel Xin Tham
AU - Hughes, Liam J.
AU - Alen, Lukemann Haqeem
AU - Ancrenaz, Marc
AU - Chua, Marcus A.H.
AU - Handschuh, Markus
AU - Ward, Matthew
AU - Rifqi, Mohamad Arif
AU - Bin Jaini, Mohammad Aliyuddin
AU - Bin Omar, Muhammad Syazwan
AU - Pongpattananurak, Nantachai
AU - Shwe, Nay Myo
AU - Daniel, Olivia Z.
AU - Sinovas, Pablo
AU - Deka, Parag
AU - Radinal,
AU - Thaung, Ret
AU - Ewers, Robert M.
AU - Legrand, Romain
AU - Sukmasuang, Ronglarp
AU - Kaicheen, Sally Soo
AU - Khalid, Salwa
AU - Aung, Saw Soe
AU - Sheherazade, Sheherazade
AU - Davies, Stuart J.
AU - Braasch, Thiemo
AU - Gray, Thomas N.E.
AU - Redford, Tim
AU - Grafe, Ulmar
AU - Song, Xiaoyang
AU - Luskin, Matthew Scott
N1 - Publisher Copyright:
© 2025 The Author(s). Conservation Letters published by Wiley Periodicals LLC.
PY - 2025/5/1
Y1 - 2025/5/1
N2 - The 2018 arrival of African swine fever (ASF) in China was followed by reports of wild pig deaths across most countries in Southeast Asia. However, the magnitude and duration of population-level impacts of ASF on wild pig species remain unclear. To elucidate the spatiotemporal spread of ASF in the region for native pig species, we gathered qualitative information on wild pig population dynamics in Southeast Asia between 2018 and 2024 from 88 expert elicitation questionnaires representing sites in 11 countries. Peak reported population declines occurred in 2021 and 2022, with more than half of respondents reporting declining wild pig populations, far higher than in earlier years. The reported declines waned to 44.23% in 2024, whereas simultaneously, the number of populations reported to be “increasing” increased from 11.3%–13.2% in 2019–2022 to 28.9% in 2024. These reports suggest that the ASF outbreak may have peaked for wild boars and bearded pigs in mainland Southeast Asia, Borneo, and Sumatra, with some subsequent recovery. However, the disease is still expanding into the ranges of island endemic species, such as new reports for the Sulawesi warty pig (Sus celebensis) in September of 2024. Island endemics remain particularly vulnerable to extinction from ASF and require urgent monitoring and conservation action.
AB - The 2018 arrival of African swine fever (ASF) in China was followed by reports of wild pig deaths across most countries in Southeast Asia. However, the magnitude and duration of population-level impacts of ASF on wild pig species remain unclear. To elucidate the spatiotemporal spread of ASF in the region for native pig species, we gathered qualitative information on wild pig population dynamics in Southeast Asia between 2018 and 2024 from 88 expert elicitation questionnaires representing sites in 11 countries. Peak reported population declines occurred in 2021 and 2022, with more than half of respondents reporting declining wild pig populations, far higher than in earlier years. The reported declines waned to 44.23% in 2024, whereas simultaneously, the number of populations reported to be “increasing” increased from 11.3%–13.2% in 2019–2022 to 28.9% in 2024. These reports suggest that the ASF outbreak may have peaked for wild boars and bearded pigs in mainland Southeast Asia, Borneo, and Sumatra, with some subsequent recovery. However, the disease is still expanding into the ranges of island endemic species, such as new reports for the Sulawesi warty pig (Sus celebensis) in September of 2024. Island endemics remain particularly vulnerable to extinction from ASF and require urgent monitoring and conservation action.
KW - bearded pig (Sus barbatus)
KW - biodiversity monitoring
KW - expert elicitation survey
KW - predator-prey depletion
KW - Suidaeisland endemics
KW - threatened and endangered species
KW - wild boar (Sus scrofa)
KW - wildlife disease ecology
KW - zoonotic virus
UR - https://www.scopus.com/pages/publications/105014103163
U2 - 10.1111/conl.13105
DO - 10.1111/conl.13105
M3 - Article
AN - SCOPUS:105014103163
SN - 1755-263X
VL - 18
JO - Conservation Letters
JF - Conservation Letters
IS - 3
M1 - e13105
ER -