Meta-analysis of tropical surface temperatures during the Last Glacial Maximum

A. P. Ballantyne, M. Lavine, T. J. Crowley, J. Liu, P. B. Baker

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

57 Scopus citations


The magnitude of tropical cooling during the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) has been the subject of uncertainty for over 25 years. We use principles of meta-analysis as an objective approach to reconcile estimates from different proxies. This approach treats each observation as a random estimate of the true mean and weights estimates by their reported precision. We assigned global uncertainties to proxies and derived a new regional standard deviation for temperatures calculated from the Sr/Ca ratio in tropical corals (σ = 1.4°C). Using a Bayesian spatial interpolation scheme, we estimate a mean cooling of LGM tropical sea surface temperatures of -2.7 ± 0.5°C (±σ) and surface air temperatures of -5.4 ± 0.3°C (±σ).

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)1-4
Number of pages4
JournalGeophysical Research Letters
Issue number5
StatePublished - Mar 16 2005


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