Meta-analysis of tropical surface temperatures during the Last Glacial Maximum

A. P. Ballantyne; M. Lavine; T. J. Crowley; J. Liu; P. B. Baker

doi:10.1029/2004GL021217

Meta-analysis of tropical surface temperatures during the Last Glacial Maximum

A. P. Ballantyne, M. Lavine, T. J. Crowley, J. Liu, P. B. Baker

W. A. Franke College of Forestry and Conservation

Duke University

Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › peer-review

57 Scopus citations

Abstract

The magnitude of tropical cooling during the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) has been the subject of uncertainty for over 25 years. We use principles of meta-analysis as an objective approach to reconcile estimates from different proxies. This approach treats each observation as a random estimate of the true mean and weights estimates by their reported precision. We assigned global uncertainties to proxies and derived a new regional standard deviation for temperatures calculated from the Sr/Ca ratio in tropical corals (σ = 1.4°C). Using a Bayesian spatial interpolation scheme, we estimate a mean cooling of LGM tropical sea surface temperatures of -2.7 ± 0.5°C (±σ) and surface air temperatures of -5.4 ± 0.3°C (±σ).

Original language	English
Pages (from-to)	1-4
Number of pages	4
Journal	Geophysical Research Letters
Volume	32
Issue number	5
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1029/2004GL021217
State	Published - Mar 16 2005

Access to Document

10.1029/2004GL021217

Cite this

@article{a5366a7941974ad2b47f727e54bcad56,

title = "Meta-analysis of tropical surface temperatures during the Last Glacial Maximum",

abstract = "The magnitude of tropical cooling during the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) has been the subject of uncertainty for over 25 years. We use principles of meta-analysis as an objective approach to reconcile estimates from different proxies. This approach treats each observation as a random estimate of the true mean and weights estimates by their reported precision. We assigned global uncertainties to proxies and derived a new regional standard deviation for temperatures calculated from the Sr/Ca ratio in tropical corals (σ = 1.4°C). Using a Bayesian spatial interpolation scheme, we estimate a mean cooling of LGM tropical sea surface temperatures of -2.7 ± 0.5°C (±σ) and surface air temperatures of -5.4 ± 0.3°C (±σ).",

author = "Ballantyne, {A. P.} and M. Lavine and Crowley, {T. J.} and J. Liu and Baker, {P. B.}",

year = "2005",

month = mar,

day = "16",

doi = "10.1029/2004GL021217",

language = "English",

volume = "32",

pages = "1--4",

journal = "Geophysical Research Letters",

issn = "0094-8276",

publisher = "John Wiley and Sons Inc.",

number = "5",

}

TY - JOUR

T1 - Meta-analysis of tropical surface temperatures during the Last Glacial Maximum

AU - Ballantyne, A. P.

AU - Lavine, M.

AU - Crowley, T. J.

AU - Liu, J.

AU - Baker, P. B.

PY - 2005/3/16

Y1 - 2005/3/16

N2 - The magnitude of tropical cooling during the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) has been the subject of uncertainty for over 25 years. We use principles of meta-analysis as an objective approach to reconcile estimates from different proxies. This approach treats each observation as a random estimate of the true mean and weights estimates by their reported precision. We assigned global uncertainties to proxies and derived a new regional standard deviation for temperatures calculated from the Sr/Ca ratio in tropical corals (σ = 1.4°C). Using a Bayesian spatial interpolation scheme, we estimate a mean cooling of LGM tropical sea surface temperatures of -2.7 ± 0.5°C (±σ) and surface air temperatures of -5.4 ± 0.3°C (±σ).

AB - The magnitude of tropical cooling during the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) has been the subject of uncertainty for over 25 years. We use principles of meta-analysis as an objective approach to reconcile estimates from different proxies. This approach treats each observation as a random estimate of the true mean and weights estimates by their reported precision. We assigned global uncertainties to proxies and derived a new regional standard deviation for temperatures calculated from the Sr/Ca ratio in tropical corals (σ = 1.4°C). Using a Bayesian spatial interpolation scheme, we estimate a mean cooling of LGM tropical sea surface temperatures of -2.7 ± 0.5°C (±σ) and surface air temperatures of -5.4 ± 0.3°C (±σ).

UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=20444492480&partnerID=8YFLogxK

U2 - 10.1029/2004GL021217

DO - 10.1029/2004GL021217

M3 - Article

AN - SCOPUS:20444492480

SN - 0094-8276

VL - 32

SP - 1

EP - 4

JO - Geophysical Research Letters

JF - Geophysical Research Letters

IS - 5

ER -

Meta-analysis of tropical surface temperatures during the Last Glacial Maximum

Abstract

Access to Document

Other files and links

Fingerprint

Cite this