Modeling cropland conversion for conservation prioritization across the United States

Understanding the spatial pattern of cropping is crucial for proactive conservation efforts in vulnerable ecosystems. This paper presents a spatially explicit probability layer for the conterminous United States which identifies areas of high likelihood of future cropping (i.e., probability of being tilled) based on key geophysical measures of climate, geomorphology, and soil. This dataset identifies areas with a high propensity for cultivation, offering a critical baseline for prioritizing conservation strategies in remaining natural ecosystems at risk of conversion. Derived using underlying geophysical processes, this spatially explicit output can be combined with socio-economic data for more nuanced and regionally specific conservation planning. This resource provides a valuable tool for researchers, land managers, and policymakers seeking to mitigate the impacts of cropping on these ecosystems.