TY - JOUR
T1 - Non-symmetric responses of leaf onset date to natural warming and cooling in northern ecosystems
AU - He, Lei
AU - Wang, Jian
AU - Ciais, Philippe
AU - Ballantyne, Ashley
AU - Yu, Kailiang
AU - Zhang, Wenxin
AU - Xiao, Jingfeng
AU - Ritter, François
AU - Liu, Zhihua
AU - Wang, Xufeng
AU - Li, Xiaojun
AU - Peng, Shouzhang
AU - Ma, Changhui
AU - Zhou, Chenghu
AU - Li, Zhao Liang
AU - Xie, Yaowen
AU - Ye, Jian Sheng
N1 - Publisher Copyright:
© The Author(s) 2023.
PY - 2023/9/1
Y1 - 2023/9/1
N2 - The northern hemisphere has experienced regional cooling, especially during the global warming hiatus (1998-2012) due to ocean energy redistribution. However, the lack of studies about the natural cooling effects hampers our understanding of vegetation responses to climate change. Using 15,125 ground phenological time series at 3,620 sites since the 1950s and 31-year satellite greenness observations (1982-2012) covering the warming hiatus period, we show a stronger response of leaf onset date (LOD) to natural cooling than to warming, i.e. the delay of LOD caused by 1°C cooling is larger than the advance of LOD with 1°C warming. This might be because cooling leads to larger chilling accumulation and heating requirements for leaf onset, but this non-symmetric LOD response is partially offset by warming-related drying. Moreover, spring greening magnitude, in terms of satellite-based greenness and productivity, is more sensitive to LOD changes in the warming area than in the cooling. These results highlight the importance of considering non-symmetric responses of spring greening to warming and cooling when predicting vegetation-climate feedbacks.
AB - The northern hemisphere has experienced regional cooling, especially during the global warming hiatus (1998-2012) due to ocean energy redistribution. However, the lack of studies about the natural cooling effects hampers our understanding of vegetation responses to climate change. Using 15,125 ground phenological time series at 3,620 sites since the 1950s and 31-year satellite greenness observations (1982-2012) covering the warming hiatus period, we show a stronger response of leaf onset date (LOD) to natural cooling than to warming, i.e. the delay of LOD caused by 1°C cooling is larger than the advance of LOD with 1°C warming. This might be because cooling leads to larger chilling accumulation and heating requirements for leaf onset, but this non-symmetric LOD response is partially offset by warming-related drying. Moreover, spring greening magnitude, in terms of satellite-based greenness and productivity, is more sensitive to LOD changes in the warming area than in the cooling. These results highlight the importance of considering non-symmetric responses of spring greening to warming and cooling when predicting vegetation-climate feedbacks.
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=85178304468&partnerID=8YFLogxK
U2 - 10.1093/pnasnexus/pgad308
DO - 10.1093/pnasnexus/pgad308
M3 - Article
AN - SCOPUS:85178304468
VL - 2
JO - PNAS Nexus
JF - PNAS Nexus
IS - 9
M1 - pgad308
ER -