Abstract
Since the initial development of the robust design, this capture-recapture model structure has been modified to estimate temporary emigration and expanded to include auxiliary information such as band recovery and live resight data using maximum likelihood approaches. These developments have allowed investigators to separately assess individual and group effects on true survival, site fidelity, and temporary emigration. Additionally, recent advances in the BUGS language have allowed researchers to develop increasingly complex, user-specified models in Bayesian frameworks. The robust design has rarely been implemented in the BUGS language, and previous attempts to parameterize the robust design in BUGS exhibited strong bias in estimates of temporary emigration rates. Given the limitations of current parameterizations of the robust design in Bayesian frameworks, and our research objectives, we have developed a parameterization of the robust design in the BUGS language that produces unbiased estimates of all model parameters. We use this novel model structure to examine lifetime carry-over effects of environmental conditions during early life on annual breeding probabilities of Pacific black brent Branta bernicla nigricans breeding on the Yukon–Kuskokwim River Delta in Western Alaska. We found that individuals that were more structurally developed as goslings bred at increased rates as adults (β = 0.14, f = 0.94), with no effect on adult survival (β = 0.01, f = 0.62). Additionally, we provide evidence for long-term declines in apparent survival of breeding adult females at the population level (β = −0.01, f = 0.90). This novel model structure can be easily expanded (Gibson et al., in press) and has important implications for population modelling at broad scales, where we apply it to a declining population of Pacific black brent. Given long-term declines in gosling growth on the Yukon–Kuskokwim Delta, we predict future declines in population trajectories as a result of lifetime carry-over effects of environmental conditions during growth on adult fecundity and long-term declines in adult survival.
| Original language | English |
|---|---|
| Pages (from-to) | 2294-2305 |
| Number of pages | 12 |
| Journal | Methods in Ecology and Evolution |
| Volume | 9 |
| Issue number | 11 |
| DOIs | |
| State | Published - Nov 2018 |
Funding
Alaska Science Center; U. S. Geological Survey; Migratory Bird Management Region 7; U. S. Fish and Wildlife Service; Ducks Unlimited; The Morro Bay Brant Group; Phil Jebbia; Dennis Raveling Scholarship from the California Waterfowl Association; The National Science Foundation, Grant/Award Number: OPP 9214970, DEB 9815383, OPP 9985931, OPP 0196406, DEB 0743152 and DEB 1252656; Institute for Wetland and Waterfowl Research, Ducks Unlimited The authors thank the 200+ technicians, volunteers, and graduate students who collected data at the Tutakoke River Brent Colony during this study. Field work at the Tutakoke River Brent Colony was funded by the Alaska Science Center, U. S. Geological Survey, Migratory Bird Management Region 7, U. S. Fish and Wildlife Service, Ducks Unlimited, the Morro Bay Brant Group, Phil Jebbia (in memory of Marnie Shepherd), and The National Science Foundation (OPP 9214970, DEB 9815383, OPP 9985931, OPP 0196406, DEB 0743152, DEB 1252656). T.V.R. was also supported by the Bonnycastle Fellowship in Wetland and Waterfowl Biology from the Institute for Wetland and Waterfowl Research, Ducks Unlimited Canada, and the Dennis Raveling Scholarship from the California Waterfowl Association. Exceptional logistical support was provided by Matt Irinaga, Larry Gullingsrud, and Laurel McFadden of CH2M Hill Polar Services, and data were collected on the Yukon Delta National Wildlife Refuge.
| Funder number |
|---|
| DEB 1252656, DEB 0743152, OPP 0196406, OPP 9214970, OPP 9985931, DEB 9815383 |
Keywords
- Bayesian
- Branta bernicla nigricans
- breeding probability
- capture–mark–recapture
- carry-over effects
- fitness
- population dynamics
- robust design
