Predicted connectivity pathways between grizzly bear ecosystems in Western Montana

Sarah N. Sells; Cecily M. Costello; Paul M. Lukacs; Lori L. Roberts; Milan A. Vinks

doi:10.1016/j.biocon.2023.110199

Predicted connectivity pathways between grizzly bear ecosystems in Western Montana

Sarah N. Sells
, Cecily M. Costello
, Paul M. Lukacs
, Lori L. Roberts
, Milan A. Vinks

W. A. Franke College of Forestry and Conservation

Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › peer-review

12 Scopus citations

Abstract

Habitat and corridor mapping are key components of many conservation programs. Grizzly bear populations in the continental US are fragmented and connectivity among federal recovery areas is a conservation goal. Building on recent work, we modeled movements to predict areas of connectivity, using integrated step selection functions (iSSFs) developed from GPS-collared grizzly bears (F = 46, M = 19) in the Northern Continental Divide Ecosystem (NCDE). We applied iSSFs in a >300,000 km² area including the NCDE, Cabinet–Yaak (CYE), Bitterroot (BE), and Greater Yellowstone (GYE) Ecosystems. First, we simulated directed movements (randomized shortest paths with 3 levels of exploration) between start and end nodes across populations. Second, we simulated undirected movements from start nodes in the NCDE, CYE, or GYE (no predetermined end nodes). We summarized and binned results as classes 1 (lowest relative predicted use) – 10 (highest relative predicted use) and evaluated predictions using 127 outlier grizzly bear locations. Connectivity pathways were primarily associated with mountainous areas and secondarily with river and stream courses in open valleys. Values at outlier locations indicated good model fit and mean classes at outlier locations (≥7.4) and Spearman rank correlations (≥0.87) were highest for undirected simulations and directed simulations with the highest level of exploration. Our resulting predictive maps can facilitate on-the-ground application of this research for prioritizing habitat conservation, human-bear conflict mitigation, and transportation planning. Additionally, our overall modeling approach has utility for myriad species and conservation applications.

Original language	English
Article number	110199
Journal	Biological Conservation
Volume	284
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1016/j.biocon.2023.110199
State	Published - Aug 2023

Funding

Financial support for this research was provided by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS, grant M62066/G20AC000412 ), the sale of hunting and fishing licenses in Montana , and Federal Aid in Wildlife Restoration grant W-154-M-5 to Montana Fish, Wildlife & Parks. Data were collected with financial or field support from MFWP, USGS, USFWS, USFWS ESA Section 6 program, US Forest Service, Confederated Salish and Kootenai Tribes (CSKT), Blackfeet Nation Fish and Wildlife (BNFW), and the National Park Service (NPS). We thank the many biologists and technicians involved with field work and collaring of grizzly bears for the NCDE trend monitoring program, especially R. Mace, K. Annis, T. Chilton-Radandt, E. Hampson, J. Jonkel, M. Madel, T. Manley, W. Sarmento, B. Weisner, E. Wenum, and C. White (MFWP); E. Graham (Blackfoot Challenge); K. Aneas, S. Clairmont, and S. Courville (CSKT); D. Carney, J. Horn, C. Powell, and D. Weatherwax (BNFW); and J. Waller (NPS). We also thank the following for their contributions: J. Gude (MFWP); H. Cooley; J. Fortin-Noreus, W. Kasworm, J. Teisberg, T. Radandt (USFWS); M. Haroldson and F. van Manen (USGS); M. Mitchell (Montana Cooperative Wildlife Research Unit); E. Palm (UM); and S. Jackson and C. Waters (USFS). Any use of trade, firm, or product names is for descriptive purposes only and does not imply endorsement by the U.S. Government. Financial support for this research was provided by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS, grant M62066/G20AC000412), the sale of hunting and fishing licenses in Montana, and Federal Aid in Wildlife Restoration grant W-154-M-5 to Montana Fish, Wildlife & Parks. SS, CC, and PL conceived the ideas and designed methodology; CC, LR, and MV collected the data; SS analyzed the data and led the writing of the manuscript. All authors contributed critically to the drafts and gave final approval for publication. All grizzly bears were handled following procedures described in the Montana Animal Care and Use Committee protocols for grizzly bears and black bears (Montana Fish Wildlife and Parks, 2004).

Funders	Funder number
M62066/G20AC000412, W-154-M-5
U.S. Forest Service-Retired

Keywords

Connectivity
Conservation
Dispersal
Grizzly bear
Integrated step selection functions
Movement
Ursus arctos

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10.1016/j.biocon.2023.110199

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title = "Predicted connectivity pathways between grizzly bear ecosystems in Western Montana",

abstract = "Habitat and corridor mapping are key components of many conservation programs. Grizzly bear populations in the continental US are fragmented and connectivity among federal recovery areas is a conservation goal. Building on recent work, we modeled movements to predict areas of connectivity, using integrated step selection functions (iSSFs) developed from GPS-collared grizzly bears (F = 46, M = 19) in the Northern Continental Divide Ecosystem (NCDE). We applied iSSFs in a >300,000 km2 area including the NCDE, Cabinet–Yaak (CYE), Bitterroot (BE), and Greater Yellowstone (GYE) Ecosystems. First, we simulated directed movements (randomized shortest paths with 3 levels of exploration) between start and end nodes across populations. Second, we simulated undirected movements from start nodes in the NCDE, CYE, or GYE (no predetermined end nodes). We summarized and binned results as classes 1 (lowest relative predicted use) – 10 (highest relative predicted use) and evaluated predictions using 127 outlier grizzly bear locations. Connectivity pathways were primarily associated with mountainous areas and secondarily with river and stream courses in open valleys. Values at outlier locations indicated good model fit and mean classes at outlier locations (≥7.4) and Spearman rank correlations (≥0.87) were highest for undirected simulations and directed simulations with the highest level of exploration. Our resulting predictive maps can facilitate on-the-ground application of this research for prioritizing habitat conservation, human-bear conflict mitigation, and transportation planning. Additionally, our overall modeling approach has utility for myriad species and conservation applications.",

keywords = "Connectivity, Conservation, Dispersal, Grizzly bear, Integrated step selection functions, Movement, Ursus arctos",

author = "Sells, \{Sarah N.\} and Costello, \{Cecily M.\} and Lukacs, \{Paul M.\} and Roberts, \{Lori L.\} and Vinks, \{Milan A.\}",

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N2 - Habitat and corridor mapping are key components of many conservation programs. Grizzly bear populations in the continental US are fragmented and connectivity among federal recovery areas is a conservation goal. Building on recent work, we modeled movements to predict areas of connectivity, using integrated step selection functions (iSSFs) developed from GPS-collared grizzly bears (F = 46, M = 19) in the Northern Continental Divide Ecosystem (NCDE). We applied iSSFs in a >300,000 km2 area including the NCDE, Cabinet–Yaak (CYE), Bitterroot (BE), and Greater Yellowstone (GYE) Ecosystems. First, we simulated directed movements (randomized shortest paths with 3 levels of exploration) between start and end nodes across populations. Second, we simulated undirected movements from start nodes in the NCDE, CYE, or GYE (no predetermined end nodes). We summarized and binned results as classes 1 (lowest relative predicted use) – 10 (highest relative predicted use) and evaluated predictions using 127 outlier grizzly bear locations. Connectivity pathways were primarily associated with mountainous areas and secondarily with river and stream courses in open valleys. Values at outlier locations indicated good model fit and mean classes at outlier locations (≥7.4) and Spearman rank correlations (≥0.87) were highest for undirected simulations and directed simulations with the highest level of exploration. Our resulting predictive maps can facilitate on-the-ground application of this research for prioritizing habitat conservation, human-bear conflict mitigation, and transportation planning. Additionally, our overall modeling approach has utility for myriad species and conservation applications.

AB - Habitat and corridor mapping are key components of many conservation programs. Grizzly bear populations in the continental US are fragmented and connectivity among federal recovery areas is a conservation goal. Building on recent work, we modeled movements to predict areas of connectivity, using integrated step selection functions (iSSFs) developed from GPS-collared grizzly bears (F = 46, M = 19) in the Northern Continental Divide Ecosystem (NCDE). We applied iSSFs in a >300,000 km2 area including the NCDE, Cabinet–Yaak (CYE), Bitterroot (BE), and Greater Yellowstone (GYE) Ecosystems. First, we simulated directed movements (randomized shortest paths with 3 levels of exploration) between start and end nodes across populations. Second, we simulated undirected movements from start nodes in the NCDE, CYE, or GYE (no predetermined end nodes). We summarized and binned results as classes 1 (lowest relative predicted use) – 10 (highest relative predicted use) and evaluated predictions using 127 outlier grizzly bear locations. Connectivity pathways were primarily associated with mountainous areas and secondarily with river and stream courses in open valleys. Values at outlier locations indicated good model fit and mean classes at outlier locations (≥7.4) and Spearman rank correlations (≥0.87) were highest for undirected simulations and directed simulations with the highest level of exploration. Our resulting predictive maps can facilitate on-the-ground application of this research for prioritizing habitat conservation, human-bear conflict mitigation, and transportation planning. Additionally, our overall modeling approach has utility for myriad species and conservation applications.

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KW - Conservation

KW - Dispersal

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Predicted connectivity pathways between grizzly bear ecosystems in Western Montana

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