Abstract
To assess global carbon cycle variability, we decompose the net land carbon sink into the sum of gross primary productivity (GPP), terrestrial ecosystem respiration (TER), and fire emissions and apply a Bayesian framework to constrain these fluxes between 1980 and 2014. The constrained GPP and TER fluxes show an increasing trend of only half of the prior trend simulated by models. From the optimization, we infer that TER increased in parallel with GPP from 1980 to 1990, but then stalled during the cooler periods, in 1990–1994 coincident with the Pinatubo eruption, and during the recent warming hiatus period. After each of these TER stalling periods, TER is found to increase faster than GPP, explaining a relative reduction of the net land sink. These results shed light on decadal variations of GPP and TER and suggest that they exhibit different responses to temperature anomalies over the last 35 years.
| Original language | English |
|---|---|
| Pages (from-to) | 1058-1068 |
| Number of pages | 11 |
| Journal | Geophysical Research Letters |
| Volume | 45 |
| Issue number | 2 |
| DOIs | |
| State | Published - Jan 28 2018 |
Funding
We acknowledge the TRENDY project and TRENDY modelers for making their data available. We thank Martin Jung for providing the WAI data. CPC Soil Moisture data provided by the NOAA/OAR/ESRL PSD, Boulder, Colorado, USA, from their Web site at http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/. W.L. and P.F. are supported by the European Commission-funded project LUC4C (603542). W.L., P.C., and S.Pe. acknowledge support from the European Research Council through Synergy grant ERC-2013-SyG-610028 “IMBALANCE-P.” P.F. is supported by the European Union’s Horizon 2020 research and innovation program, under grant agreement 641816 (CRESCENDO). J.G.C. is supported by the Earth Systems and Climate Change Hub of the Australian National Environmental Science Program. All the data supporting our study can be found in the tables in the supporting information.
| Funder number |
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| 641816, 603542, 610028 |
Keywords
- Bayesian constraint
- GPP trend
- terrestrial ecosystem respiration